A very early prediction

If Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani wind up as the finalists in the 08 Presidential campaign, which one is the worthier candidate? Which one will win? And do these two questions have to have the same answer?

Given that Obama and Guiliani are both strong candidates, stronger than we have had in many years, it's really not possible to objectively decide who is "worthier." That's a value judgment.

Guiliani guided our nation's most important city through our worst nightmare. He became America's mayor due to his unwavering confidence, tempered by a clear and deeply felt empathy for the victims of 9/11 - the most important event in our lifetime. He didn't boast about retribution, he didn't seek political gain from the disaster and he didn't fearmonger.

Obama's candidacy has revealed that despite recent momentary lapses into racial ugliness, America will eventually overcome it's ethnic divisions. Obama is intensely intelligent, and he, better than anyone, understands that he is a bridging figure - from polarization and fear to unity and hope. He's lived, it breathed it and dreamt it.

So who will win - and why?

If I am right, this election has already been decided. The confluence of events leading up to this presidential cycle have in effect already determined the winner. Our next President won't be the one with the most experience. All else being equal, he or she won't necessarily be the one with the absolute "best" plan to solve the Iraq quagmire, defeat the terrorists, keep our economy running strongly, etc. If that were true, my guess is the winner would be Rudy Giuliani - although we're still rightly months away from finding out the details of Rudy's campaign platform. And if I'm wrong, I'll still be proud to call Rudy Giuliani our President.

But in a Guliani - Obama election I don't think we'll see dirty campaigning or a distortion of your opponent's views. Yes - there will be significant differences and heated exchanges. I'm sure there will even be attack ads (although nothing like the nastiness of "Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth). But in the end, those won't matter. I think Barack Obama will use the inevitable series of Presidential debates to put to rest fears that he is too inexperienced to be President. And then his charisma will take over.

I don't think any pundit realizes the thirst this country has for a charismatic leader whose ideals also match up with the majority viewpoint. No matter how well Rudy campaigns, he won't be able to overcome this.

If only he would be Obama's Vice President...